Spring Budget Newsletter 2024

Our Spring Budget Newsletter breaks down the Chancellor’s recent announcement, outlining what it means for you and helping you to plan for the new tax year – which is almost upon us.

Flying High

In this month’s Market Commentary, Raymond James European Strategist, Jeremy Batstone-Carr, looks back on the strong performance of many of the world’s leading markets, the ongoing popularity of investment in artificial intelligence, and whether this current stock market strength can last.

Green Shoots

In the first Monthly Market Commentary of the year, Raymond James European Strategist, Jeremy Batstone-Carr, looks back on the largely positive start to the year for many of the world’s leading markets, the struggles of the Chinese economy, and areas for investors to consider for the coming months.

Foundations for the future

In the last Monthly Market Commentary of the year, Raymond James’ European Strategist, Jeremy Batstone-Carr, looks back over November and discusses a shift in investor sentiment, contrasting economic performances, fiscal policy decisions in the UK and Europe, and more.

Autumn Statement Analysis 2023

Our Autumn Statement Analysis breaks down the Chancellor’s recent announcement, outlining what it means for you and helping you to plan for the upcoming calendar year.

The centre holds

In this month’s Market Commentary, Raymond James’ European Strategist, Jeremy Batstone-Carr, discusses the global financial markets, takes a look at the UK and US economies, plus he examines recent challenges in China.

A Different World

A Different World

For the majority of the past decade or so, the western World lived in a low inflation environment.
Low-interest rates and central bank stimulus gave a boom in growth stocks and bonds, which lasted over a decade. We now live in a World characterised by soaring inflation driving cost of living crises.

In investing, it is dangerous to extrapolate the past to the future. I would ask all investors, are your portfolios prepared for the past decade or the coming one?

The hope is that inflation is only temporary, or ‘transitory’ as economists put it. An element will certainly be transitory as supply chains mend and basic material prices ease. However, it would be
remiss to ignore a number of factors that are likely to drive inflation and potentially stagflation throughout the next decade.

Personalised Strategies for business owners and entrepreneurs

Working Age Population

Firstly, working-age populations in the Western World are generally shrinking. An even more important shift is now occurring in China, which has exported deflation across the globe by providing a cheap and efficient workforce for over three decades. Now its workforce is reducing, and wages are rising. If you believe in the law of supply and demand, it is reasonable to believe that a diminishing global pool of productive workers will command higher prices and drive inflation.

Fossil Fuels

Secondly, investment in fossil fuels and nuclear has been reduced before renewables are able to replace them sufficiently. For example, falling capital expenditure has led to new discoveries of oil and gas falling from 30m barrels of oil equivalent a day in 2012 to just 5m in 2021. And arguably, the biggest policy mistake of the last 10 years is that we have less global nuclear output than a decade ago. The problem with wind and solar is that there currently is no way of effectively storing it, so they only supplement the grid when there is enough wind or sun. This lack of investment in fossil fuels and nuclear will be an inflationary force throughout the coming decade as demand will continue to outstrip supply in the absence of severe recessions.

De-Globalisation

Thirdly, we are entering a World of de-globalisation, as tensions between the different civilisations break down and countries ‘re-shore’ manufacturing. One of the first things you learn in economics is the law of comparative advantage. It demonstrates that if an economy can manufacture goods or provide services with a lower opportunity cost than another, which has an advantage in producing a different good or service, then by trading there is a net gain to both economies and people will enjoy goods and services more cheaply. If countries choose to trade with less efficient partners and try and produce goods themselves at a higher cost, this is indeed inflationary.

These elements have been a long time in the making. Inflationary pressure had been building for a
while, even before the pandemic. Re-openings followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine were just
the spark that lit the explosion.

The outlook for Western economies is grim; central banks are being forced to raise interest rates, exacerbating the cost-of-living crises, and governments have little room to help, having blitzed more
than they could afford implementing lockdowns.

However, it is important to remember that it is always darkest before dawn, and it is when times are dark that opportunities can be purchased at a heavy discount. They must be bought with the future, not the past in mind, though.

A well-thought-out plan can not only help you work toward realistic goals, but also help you avoid costly mistakes.

Reach out to us today for professional, tailored advice so you can look ahead with
confidence.

Risk Warning: Opinions constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without warning. With investing, your capital is at risk

Financial markets make progress in July against a difficult backdrop

The investing environment could hardly be more challenging. Global economic activity is slowing, Western developed economies are flirting with recession, inflationary pressures are extremely elevated, and Western central banks remain committed to raising interest rates in a concerted effort to bring them under control. The geopolitical backdrop is still as dark as ever; the war in Ukraine continues, China’s bellicose threats against the United States ahead of House speaker, Mrs Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Asia have become more pointed. Europe faces a natural gas shortage over the coming winter, Dr Mario Draghi’s Italian government has collapsed, while in the UK, the same fate has befallen Mr Boris Johnson’s administration.

Raymond James Investment Services, proud to be in the heart of your community

Deciphering the Market’s Difficult Message

More than 200 years ago, a French military officer stumbled across the Rosetta Stone, a 2000-year-old carving with clues to deciphering the Egyptian hieroglyphs that had puzzled the world for centuries. We don’t exactly have a Rosetta Stone for our perplexing market’s future – no one does. But just as the Rosetta Stone opened a window into Egypt’s mysterious past, we have some clues that might help investors crack the code in the coming months.

Raymond James Investment Services, proud to be in the heart of your community

‘SOS Kit Aid’ Golf Day

SOS Kit Aid Golf Events Get Off the Ground with Support from Halbro Sportswear

Raymond James supported the ‘SOS Kit Aid’ golf day on June 23rd at Staining lodge golf club. SOS kit aid is a fantastic charity that distributes second-hand and unused rugby kits to disadvantaged youngsters across the globe. These donations have benefitted over 350,000 young people thus far. Thanks go to regional director Andy Thompson for the fine work he and wife Kathryn do for the charity and for a great day. Should anyone be interested in helping ‘SOS Kit Aid’ please get in touch with your adviser and we will point you in the right direction.

Click the address to find out more: https://www.soskitaid.com/latestnews/first-halbro-sponsored-sos-kit-aid-golf-event-is-a-great-success/

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The Raymond James team of Paul Gavaghan, Tony Brown, Jason Keogh and Dan Glover were victorious with 95 Stableford points and were presented their prize by Rugby hall of famer, Gill Burns MBE
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