Searching for believersMarch 7, 2019Welcome to March, a time in the past when I have gone all Shakespearean in my written musings and quoted the famous words imagined uttered to Julius Caesar before his assassination. It looks as if the Ides of March (typically regarded as the fifteenth day of the month) will be just after a series of further Brexit related votes which could provide the greater clarity consumers, industrialists, politicians and investors seem to desire. As one economic survey, focused on the view of UK manufacturers, strikingly put it recently: ‘The march of the makers has turned into a painful crawl, where only certainty about the Brexit way forward can ease the sector’s pain’. Continue Reading
Feel goodFebruary 8, 2019If anyone out there was predicting that January 2019 would be the strongest performance month for global equity markets in over seven years, I would be grateful if they could be pointed out to me as I would like to shake their hand. Continue Reading
2019 OutlookJanuary 10, 2019If you had to sum up why world, ex-US, financial markets typically underperformed during 2018 then economic growth, currency movements, and trade talk uncertainties would be the three most influential headwinds. Simply put, U.S. economic growth surprised on the upside whilst other major economies did not, the dollar appreciated against most other currencies, and concerns about essential future trading relations impacted the more export-focused European and emerging markets last year. In order for international markets to gain momentum over the U.S. in 2019, these concerns need to be quelled. Continue Reading
It is good to talkDecember 4, 2018I realise the title above sounds a little like a famous advert from the 1990s (other telecoms operators are available) but, at least during the last month, the world’s political and economic leaders have continued to talk. And talking is just what they need to do. Of course making a few decisions is even better... so thank goodness the season of perpetual hope is almost upon us. More on the global financial markets Christmas presents wish list later. Continue Reading
Budget NewsletterNovember 2, 2018A Budget in October is unusual, but there are two main reasons why the Chancellor’s performance marginally pre-empted Halloween this year. The first is that we are now in the new cycle of Autumn Budgets and Spring Statements, the première of the latter having been made on 13 March. Continue Reading
TRADE WARS: SHOULD YOU PICK A SIDE?October 8, 2018For a number of months now, the world’s largest survey of fund managers has observed that, when asked for their greatest financial market fear, the most cited response has been a ‘trade war’. There is a significant slug of rationality for this. Continue Reading
Back to SchoolSeptember 5, 2018In the global investment strategy calendar there is only one period of time that can compare with the turn of the year in terms of importance... and that is the back to school period. Continue Reading
Hot, hot, hot!!!August 2, 2018Despite the usual weather downers such as the tennis at Wimbledon or the start of the school holidays, July was a warm month pretty much anywhere you looked in the northern hemisphere. Global stock markets were hot too, led by the out-of-favour emerging markets and Continental Europe. Funny how all throughout June and July the aggregate investment flow data was profoundly negative for both regions… Continue Reading
Squaring Off: A High-Stakes Global GameJuly 9, 2018Major macro factors affecting the economy and financial markets over the next six to twelve months include trade policy, interest rates, earnings growth, Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, and geopolitical uncertainty. Continue Reading
Decisions, decisionsJune 4, 2018I thought I would use Billy Connolly’s witticism about his homeland to highlight the essential debate in financial markets at the moment. During the last month, the UK’s most-quoted stock market index - helped by a rising oil price boosting energy sector shares - reached an all-time high. Continue Reading
Searching for believers March 7, 2019 Welcome to March, a time in the past when I have gone all Shakespearean in my written musings and quoted the famous words imagined uttered to Julius Caesar before his assassination. It looks as if the Ides of March (typically regarded as the fifteenth day of the month) will be just after a series of further Brexit related votes which could provide the greater clarity consumers, industrialists, politicians and investors seem to desire. As one economic survey, focused on the view of UK manufacturers, strikingly put it recently: ‘The march of the makers has turned into a painful crawl, where only certainty about the Brexit way forward can ease the sector’s pain’. Continue Reading
Feel good February 8, 2019 If anyone out there was predicting that January 2019 would be the strongest performance month for global equity markets in over seven years, I would be grateful if they could be pointed out to me as I would like to shake their hand. Continue Reading
2019 Outlook January 10, 2019 If you had to sum up why world, ex-US, financial markets typically underperformed during 2018 then economic growth, currency movements, and trade talk uncertainties would be the three most influential headwinds. Simply put, U.S. economic growth surprised on the upside whilst other major economies did not, the dollar appreciated against most other currencies, and concerns about essential future trading relations impacted the more export-focused European and emerging markets last year. In order for international markets to gain momentum over the U.S. in 2019, these concerns need to be quelled. Continue Reading
It is good to talk December 4, 2018 I realise the title above sounds a little like a famous advert from the 1990s (other telecoms operators are available) but, at least during the last month, the world’s political and economic leaders have continued to talk. And talking is just what they need to do. Of course making a few decisions is even better... so thank goodness the season of perpetual hope is almost upon us. More on the global financial markets Christmas presents wish list later. Continue Reading
Budget Newsletter November 2, 2018 A Budget in October is unusual, but there are two main reasons why the Chancellor’s performance marginally pre-empted Halloween this year. The first is that we are now in the new cycle of Autumn Budgets and Spring Statements, the première of the latter having been made on 13 March. Continue Reading
TRADE WARS: SHOULD YOU PICK A SIDE? October 8, 2018 For a number of months now, the world’s largest survey of fund managers has observed that, when asked for their greatest financial market fear, the most cited response has been a ‘trade war’. There is a significant slug of rationality for this. Continue Reading
Back to School September 5, 2018 In the global investment strategy calendar there is only one period of time that can compare with the turn of the year in terms of importance... and that is the back to school period. Continue Reading
Hot, hot, hot!!! August 2, 2018 Despite the usual weather downers such as the tennis at Wimbledon or the start of the school holidays, July was a warm month pretty much anywhere you looked in the northern hemisphere. Global stock markets were hot too, led by the out-of-favour emerging markets and Continental Europe. Funny how all throughout June and July the aggregate investment flow data was profoundly negative for both regions… Continue Reading
Squaring Off: A High-Stakes Global Game July 9, 2018 Major macro factors affecting the economy and financial markets over the next six to twelve months include trade policy, interest rates, earnings growth, Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, and geopolitical uncertainty. Continue Reading
Decisions, decisions June 4, 2018 I thought I would use Billy Connolly’s witticism about his homeland to highlight the essential debate in financial markets at the moment. During the last month, the UK’s most-quoted stock market index - helped by a rising oil price boosting energy sector shares - reached an all-time high. Continue Reading