One of those months?June 13, 2019With ‘fast fashion’ being so prevalent in today’s world, perhaps we should not be surprised that Oscar Wilde’s dictum looks a little slow as the world only racked up four successively positive months before a reversal. May 2019 will not go down in the financial market almanacs as anything other than a shabby month, with the regional pan-European share index falling around 5% and more than reversing any gains seen earlier in the quarter. Broadly speaking, this performance pattern in May - supplemented by the compression of sovereign bond yields - was repeated all over the world. Continue Reading
Financial markets: never easy but always fascinatingMay 8, 2019Thinking about everyone’s favourite subject, it was striking to read that a well-known UK consumer confidence index indicator released in the last few days was flat for the third month in a row, with an accompanying write-up that included the comment that ‘despite political carry-on in the Westminster bubble with the clock ticking on Britain’s eventual departure from the EU, consumers are holding firm and remain unshaken by the daily headlines of turmoil and intrigue’. Too right that there is a real and breathing UK economy still out there... and that the ongoing Brexit debate does not need to exclusively define the UK economy and its prospects. Continue Reading
10 Years Bull Market Reckoning with RecordsApril 12, 2019Despite numerous headwinds, 2019 is gearing up to be a celebratory year with record-breaking achievements on many financial and economic fronts. In particular, in the United States we just toasted the S&P 500 as it celebrated the ten-year anniversary of the secular bull market in March. Continue Reading
Searching for believersMarch 7, 2019Welcome to March, a time in the past when I have gone all Shakespearean in my written musings and quoted the famous words imagined uttered to Julius Caesar before his assassination. It looks as if the Ides of March (typically regarded as the fifteenth day of the month) will be just after a series of further Brexit related votes which could provide the greater clarity consumers, industrialists, politicians and investors seem to desire. As one economic survey, focused on the view of UK manufacturers, strikingly put it recently: ‘The march of the makers has turned into a painful crawl, where only certainty about the Brexit way forward can ease the sector’s pain’. Continue Reading
Feel goodFebruary 8, 2019If anyone out there was predicting that January 2019 would be the strongest performance month for global equity markets in over seven years, I would be grateful if they could be pointed out to me as I would like to shake their hand. Continue Reading
2019 OutlookJanuary 10, 2019If you had to sum up why world, ex-US, financial markets typically underperformed during 2018 then economic growth, currency movements, and trade talk uncertainties would be the three most influential headwinds. Simply put, U.S. economic growth surprised on the upside whilst other major economies did not, the dollar appreciated against most other currencies, and concerns about essential future trading relations impacted the more export-focused European and emerging markets last year. In order for international markets to gain momentum over the U.S. in 2019, these concerns need to be quelled. Continue Reading
It is good to talkDecember 4, 2018I realise the title above sounds a little like a famous advert from the 1990s (other telecoms operators are available) but, at least during the last month, the world’s political and economic leaders have continued to talk. And talking is just what they need to do. Of course making a few decisions is even better... so thank goodness the season of perpetual hope is almost upon us. More on the global financial markets Christmas presents wish list later. Continue Reading
Budget NewsletterNovember 2, 2018A Budget in October is unusual, but there are two main reasons why the Chancellor’s performance marginally pre-empted Halloween this year. The first is that we are now in the new cycle of Autumn Budgets and Spring Statements, the première of the latter having been made on 13 March. Continue Reading
TRADE WARS: SHOULD YOU PICK A SIDE?October 8, 2018For a number of months now, the world’s largest survey of fund managers has observed that, when asked for their greatest financial market fear, the most cited response has been a ‘trade war’. There is a significant slug of rationality for this. Continue Reading
Back to SchoolSeptember 5, 2018In the global investment strategy calendar there is only one period of time that can compare with the turn of the year in terms of importance... and that is the back to school period. Continue Reading
One of those months? June 13, 2019 With ‘fast fashion’ being so prevalent in today’s world, perhaps we should not be surprised that Oscar Wilde’s dictum looks a little slow as the world only racked up four successively positive months before a reversal. May 2019 will not go down in the financial market almanacs as anything other than a shabby month, with the regional pan-European share index falling around 5% and more than reversing any gains seen earlier in the quarter. Broadly speaking, this performance pattern in May - supplemented by the compression of sovereign bond yields - was repeated all over the world. Continue Reading
Financial markets: never easy but always fascinating May 8, 2019 Thinking about everyone’s favourite subject, it was striking to read that a well-known UK consumer confidence index indicator released in the last few days was flat for the third month in a row, with an accompanying write-up that included the comment that ‘despite political carry-on in the Westminster bubble with the clock ticking on Britain’s eventual departure from the EU, consumers are holding firm and remain unshaken by the daily headlines of turmoil and intrigue’. Too right that there is a real and breathing UK economy still out there... and that the ongoing Brexit debate does not need to exclusively define the UK economy and its prospects. Continue Reading
10 Years Bull Market Reckoning with Records April 12, 2019 Despite numerous headwinds, 2019 is gearing up to be a celebratory year with record-breaking achievements on many financial and economic fronts. In particular, in the United States we just toasted the S&P 500 as it celebrated the ten-year anniversary of the secular bull market in March. Continue Reading
Searching for believers March 7, 2019 Welcome to March, a time in the past when I have gone all Shakespearean in my written musings and quoted the famous words imagined uttered to Julius Caesar before his assassination. It looks as if the Ides of March (typically regarded as the fifteenth day of the month) will be just after a series of further Brexit related votes which could provide the greater clarity consumers, industrialists, politicians and investors seem to desire. As one economic survey, focused on the view of UK manufacturers, strikingly put it recently: ‘The march of the makers has turned into a painful crawl, where only certainty about the Brexit way forward can ease the sector’s pain’. Continue Reading
Feel good February 8, 2019 If anyone out there was predicting that January 2019 would be the strongest performance month for global equity markets in over seven years, I would be grateful if they could be pointed out to me as I would like to shake their hand. Continue Reading
2019 Outlook January 10, 2019 If you had to sum up why world, ex-US, financial markets typically underperformed during 2018 then economic growth, currency movements, and trade talk uncertainties would be the three most influential headwinds. Simply put, U.S. economic growth surprised on the upside whilst other major economies did not, the dollar appreciated against most other currencies, and concerns about essential future trading relations impacted the more export-focused European and emerging markets last year. In order for international markets to gain momentum over the U.S. in 2019, these concerns need to be quelled. Continue Reading
It is good to talk December 4, 2018 I realise the title above sounds a little like a famous advert from the 1990s (other telecoms operators are available) but, at least during the last month, the world’s political and economic leaders have continued to talk. And talking is just what they need to do. Of course making a few decisions is even better... so thank goodness the season of perpetual hope is almost upon us. More on the global financial markets Christmas presents wish list later. Continue Reading
Budget Newsletter November 2, 2018 A Budget in October is unusual, but there are two main reasons why the Chancellor’s performance marginally pre-empted Halloween this year. The first is that we are now in the new cycle of Autumn Budgets and Spring Statements, the première of the latter having been made on 13 March. Continue Reading
TRADE WARS: SHOULD YOU PICK A SIDE? October 8, 2018 For a number of months now, the world’s largest survey of fund managers has observed that, when asked for their greatest financial market fear, the most cited response has been a ‘trade war’. There is a significant slug of rationality for this. Continue Reading
Back to School September 5, 2018 In the global investment strategy calendar there is only one period of time that can compare with the turn of the year in terms of importance... and that is the back to school period. Continue Reading